Possible Correlations in the US Economy and the Circulation of Currency

Since I was a kid I have had a deep interest in currency. Sometime in the 80’s my dad gave me a large Australian copper penny with a kangaroo on the back of it dated 1941. That was all it took to start my collection, not to mention spawning my fascination with flea markets.

When the 50 State Quarters Program began in 1999 I was a cashier at Wal-Mart with first hand observation of the circulation of the new state quarters. It is important to know that most US currency is minted in Philadelphia Pennsylvania and Denver Colorado. Coins made in Philadelphia are circulated throughout the east—that is, east of the Mississippi River—while coins made in Denver are circulated in the west. Coins minted after 1979 are stamped with a small “P” or “D” distinguishing the respective minting locations (Lincoln pennies however, are the only coins minted in Philadelphia that are not stamped with “P”)

While working as a cashier and being an avid coin collector, I began to notice that Wal-Mart’s cash office would distribute rolls of the new quarters usually within a week or two of their initial release. Since the store was located in southern Indiana the entire roll would always be Philadelphia minted quarters. Within the following month I could expect to find Denver minted quarters as I counted up my cash drawer at the end of my shift. I would then make the switch with some pocket change for the Denver quarters to add to my Official Whitman Coin Folder. Through that observation I thought it a legitimate assumption that it took about a month for the Denver mints to circulate their way across the US.

I haven’t worked as a cashier for five years. But through close monitoring of all my pocket change and a cleverly constructed network of friends and relatives who are aware of my quarter collecting, I have managed to keep my folder up-to-date, but with a little trouble that I became aware of early this year.

Following its preliminary release date on January 26, 2004, 459,600,000 Michigan quarters circulated their way around the United States. It was nearly 8 months before a Denver minted Michigan quarter made its way into my possession. Keep in mind that I am a full-time college student living in the east, employed only during the summer months. Regardless of my tight spending habits and limited budget, before the Michigan quarter I never had a problem eventually obtaining Denver mints within a reasonable amount of time. With only a month remaining of 2005, I have all Philadelphia mints for this year (California, Minnesota, Oregon, Kansas, and West Virginia respectively) but am still missing Denver mints of Minnesota, Kansas, and West Virginia.

My question is this: why is it that during 2004 and 2005 it has taken such an unusual amount of time for the Denver mints to circulate their way to my pockets? Some possible explanations that I have devised are as follows:

Firstly, other than going out to eat at restaurants, all my purchases are made using my debit card. I like to pay with cash when I go out to the bar or to eat, mostly for tipping purposes. Perhaps my spending habits are to blame as I rely primarily on plastic for regular purchases such as gas, cigarettes and groceries; purchases that would otherwise produce regular pocket change. Since I have kept strict records of all transactions I make, I doubt this is the case because my routine spending habits have not changed since I started college. Granted that I rely on a stable cache of quarters with which to do my laundry every weekend, it’s safe to say I frequently handle a fair amount of quarters.

A Second but more unlikely hypothesis is that maybe collectors are hoarding an over abundance of the State quarters. Unlike the failed attempt to popularize the use of the Sacagawea dollar, I don’t feel as if collectors are to blame with the rarity of Denver mint circulation. I see ample amounts of Philadelphia mints, even plenty of Delaware quarters—the first quarter of the program to be released. If collectors were the problem, I think an early release date would directly link to the scarcity of that quarter. This has simply not been my observation as I often come across both Philadelphia and Denver mints of the older state quarters that have had a reasonable amount of time to circulate.

My third and final conjecture is that the rarity of Denver mints in the east could be a direct correlation to some kind of change in the US economy. Could such a nationwide economic change be reflected in currency circulation? I think it could, but I am no economist so I couldn’t begin to know the appropriate questions to ask or procedures to go about studying such an occurance. I think that most likely this change could be due to less travel, which in turn could be due to higher gas prices (I doubt this, in that no one I know drives any less than they ever did since gas has become more expensive). But if people aren’t traveling as much, more than likely the currency distributed to a region will remain to be circulated within that region only. This would explain why it takes so long for Denver mints to make their way across the Mississippi River. Maybe people just aren’t crossing it as much.

Then again, maybe they are crossing it as frequently as they always have but with less change in their pockets. Is it possible that people don’t rely on cash as much as they used to? I think so. Though I haven’t seen any statistics on the matter, I know I have been using my debit card for 90% of my purchases ever since I discovered its convenience.

Whatever the reason, this rarity of Denver mints in the east is simply an observation I have made. I wonder if any other statehood quarter collectors out there have experienced the same problem I have just addressed. Furthermore, is it possible that Philadelphia mints have become rare in the western United States? If so, it would be an interesting study to find out why.

Perhaps I am just impatient. At least none of my theories involve government conspiracies.